Yesterday's 232 races produced a first-pick strike rate of 26.3% (61 wins), just above the model's rolling seven-day average of 25.1%, so nothing to complain about but nothing to shout from the rooftops either. The top selection was placed 106 times in total, a 45.7% place rate that's broadly in line with recent norms.
Widen the lens to any of the top three picks and the numbers look healthier: 145 of 232 races saw one of our top three predictions win, a 62.5% hit rate, with 204 races seeing a top-three pick place. That gap between first-pick and any-top-three performance is fairly typical - it reflects how often the right dog is being identified but not always ranked first by the model.
Second and third picks both chipped in respectably too, with 42 wins apiece, showing the model's overall shape of the race was often sound even when the exact order wasn't. Nothing here changes the picture - steady, unremarkable, the kind of day the model is built to produce more often than not.