Yesterday was a solid one for the model. Across 223 races, the top-rated selection won 60 times — a 26.9% strike rate — and was placed in a further 101 races, meaning the first pick finished in the frame in well over 70% of all races run. That's a healthy day by any standard, sitting comfortably above what you'd expect from picking blind.
Widen the lens to any of the top three predicted dogs in each race and the numbers look even better: 124 winners came from somewhere in the top three picks, a 55.6% any-top-3 win rate, with 184 races seeing a top-three selection finish in the placings. In practical terms, that means more than half of yesterday's races were won by a dog the model had rated inside its leading trio, and the vast majority saw at least one of those dogs make the frame.
It wasn't a day of one standout result carrying the numbers either — the second and third picks both chipped in respectably, with 36 and 28 wins of their own. That spread across the top three suggests the model was reading the shape of races well rather than getting lucky with a handful of big-priced longshots. No complaints from a day like this — the challenge now is doing it again.