Monday's card covered 152 races and the model's first pick won 30 of them — a 19.7% win rate. That is below the week's running average and one of the harder days recently. There is no point dressing it up: when the top pick wins one in five rather than one in four, it is a below-par day.
The place column offers some consolation. Sixty-one first picks finished in the top two positions (40.1%), which means the dogs were competitive and often running into a winner rather than out of contention. There were plenty of seconds and close thirds in there.
Where Monday genuinely held up was in the broader picture. When the second and third picks are included alongside the top selection, those three dogs won 91 of 152 races — 59.9% — and placed in 134 of them (88.2%). Nearly nine races in ten saw at least one of the top three picks finish in the top two. That suggests the underlying race reading was sound on Monday; it was more a question of the third or fourth dog coming through for the win than the model misjudging the field.
Full results are on the historic results page if you want to dig into specific races.