Tuesday delivered a clean return. Across 127 races on June 16th, the model's first pick won 36 of them — a win rate of 28.3%, comfortably above the long-run average of around 26%. The first pick also placed (finished in the top two) in 56 races, giving a place rate of 44.1%.
The any-top-3 numbers tell a similar story. In 84 of those 127 races — 66.1% of the card — the winner was one of the model's three rated selections. As a practical benchmark for punters following the model's top picks, that means in two out of three races yesterday, if you had the three ratings in front of you, the winner was already identified.
There were no spectacular upsets worth dwelling on, which is a good sign. Days when the model underperforms tend to involve bunched fields or high-grade races where small margins in form lead to unpredictable outcomes. Yesterday's card ran relatively true to the predictions.
The 28.3% first-pick win rate yesterday sits in the upper range of what the model produces on a typical day. Over the past week it has averaged 26.4% across 1,195 races — so yesterday was a step above the recent trend, not a one-off outlier. Two consecutive good days (28.3% and 28.4% on Monday) suggests the model is reading current form well.