Sunday's card spread across 119 races, and the model's top pick hit 28 times — a 23.5% first-pick win rate. That is close to the model's target benchmark and a decent result for a Sunday, where card quality often varies more than midweek meetings.
The 49 first-pick places at 41.2% are worth noting: more than two in five top picks ran in the first two. If you were backing the top pick each-way, you were in the frame for a return in nearly half of all races across the day.
The any-top-3 columns are where the broader picture becomes clear. 75 winners from 119 races means the model had the race winner somewhere in its top three in 63.0% of all races. For the place market — which covers the first two — 102 from 119 races had at least one of the top-three predictions placed. That is 85.7%, meaning only 17 races on the entire card produced a result where none of the top-three picks ran in the frame.
Not every day lands like that, and there will have been races yesterday where the predictions were clearly wrong. But the shape of Sunday's results is comfortably within expectations. Full breakdowns are on the historic results page.