Yesterday gave us 126 races to get our teeth into, and the top picks did their job. The number one selection won 38 of those races, a strike rate of 30.2 per cent, comfortably above the long-run average and the kind of day that keeps the favourite-backers happy. Those same first picks placed in 63 races, so exactly half of our headline selections finished in the first two.
Widen the net and it looks better still. Counting all three of our top-rated dogs in each race, we landed 78 winners, meaning our shortlist contained the winner in just under 62 per cent of races. For anyone playing the predictions across the card rather than backing one dog blind, that is a solid return and a reminder that the value often sits in the second and third picks as much as the favourite.
No day is perfect, and there were races where the model's first choice never figured, which is the nature of a sport where trouble in running can undo the best form line in a stride. But three winners in every ten from the top pick, and the winner in our top three nearly two times in three, is a day to bank. On to today.