Friday was a good day. Across 178 races, the first pick won 48 times for a win rate of 27.0%. The first pick placed in 85 of those races, a place rate of 47.8%. Both figures are above the long-term averages and represent the kind of day that keeps the overall numbers healthy.
The wider top-three selections performed even better. At least one of the top three picks won in 105 of 178 races, a 59.0% strike rate. And the place rate for the top three was 90.4%, meaning in 161 of 178 races at least one of the three highest-rated dogs finished in the first two. That's a number that underpins the value of looking beyond just the top pick and considering the model's second and third selections as part of a broader approach.
These are exactly the kind of figures that build confidence across a week. Not every day will look like this, but when the first pick is landing at better than one in four and the top three collectively cover nearly 60% of winners, the models are doing their job. On to today.