There's a fairly clear top rating on today's card, and it belongs to Moulton Kathleen, who runs in the Handicap over Sunderland's 450m trip at 18:53 from trap 6 for trainer E Y Bell. Her composite score of 70 is comfortably the best in the race, and the form behind it explains why.
Her last four runs at this same track and trip read 2-4-4-4, which on paper looks unremarkable, but look closer and it's a dog who keeps finding herself in and around the frame without quite getting the run of a race to convert it into a win. That kind of consistency at a fixed track and distance is exactly the sort of pattern the ratings reward, because it points to a dog who handles the track's quirks and holds her form rather than one riding a hot streak.
The Handicap grading means traps are set to even things out on paper, and from box 6 she'll have room to find her stride without the traffic that can build up in the middle of the track. The chief threat on the figures is Rileys Rex from trap 5, rated a distant second on 60, while the rest of the field, Hadesthedancer, Lillybet and Black Birdie, all sit well below that mark.
None of this is a guarantee, Handicaps are designed to level a field, but when one dog's recent form lines up this consistently at the exact conditions she's facing again tonight, it's hard to make a case against her being the one to beat.