Face The Storm carries the highest composite score on today's card at 78, and it's easy to see why on paper. Trained by M A Burton, who's running at a scorching 39% win rate over the last three months, this black dog by Pestana out of Droopys Onestop has speed to burn. His form reads 6-1-5-2-3 — and that sixth was a fall at the first bend, no fault of his own. Before that, he won at OR3 over 480m in a sharp 28.55, leading near the line after travelling mid-to-wide throughout.
The raw numbers back up the eye test. A speed rating of 100, first-bend rating of 100, and early pace of 100 all reflect a dog who dominates the early exchanges over 480m. His average performance sits at 71 and he's proven at OR grade, having run at that level earlier in his career at Oxford.
The complication tonight is the distance. He lines up in the 20:13 OR over 630m at Monmore from trap 6, and he has never raced beyond 480m. That Fader pace profile — brilliant early, tendency to shorten in the closing stages — becomes a much bigger concern when there are two extra bends to negotiate. Trap 6 at this trip and grade wins just 8.70% from 23 historical runs, which is as bad as it gets.
Burton's runners demand respect on principle, and if Face The Storm can carry that 480m pace through the extra distance, he has the class edge over this field. But the data flags genuine uncertainty. He's the form pick, yes — just not a straightforward one. Worth watching closely as a guide to his future over staying trips.