The data does not always throw up obvious names, but today it lands squarely on Kranky Drake — a black dog by Malachi out of Hillview Queen, trained by K R Hutton, and lining up at Monmore at 20:13 in OR3 grade over 630 metres from trap three. His composite score of 77 leads today's entire card by a clear margin, and the form that sits behind that number is exactly the kind of trajectory you want to see.
Kranky Drake has won three of his last six starts, and the manner of those victories matters as much as the raw results. His most recent outing was a win at this exact track and grade — Monmore OR3 630m — just seven days ago. Before that came a run at Towcester at OR1 grade where he finished fourth, sandwiched between two OR1 wins at Towcester in May. A dog who can win at OR1 level and return to OR3 is doing so with something in hand, and Hutton has him in the race at the right time.
The Monmore 630-metre trip suits his running style, and trap three gives him a clean break with a clear run to the first bend. His opposition carries composite scores between 36 and 59 — Ragdoll Rosie from trap 6 is the closest challenger at 59, but still trails Kranky Drake's 77 by eighteen points. When the gap between the top-rated dog and the rest is this pronounced, it tends to mean one of two things: either the data has found something genuine, or the race develops in an unusual way. Given the course familiarity and the current form, Kranky Drake looks a well-founded selection.