Introduction
Both of our rating models are singing from the same hymn sheet here, which doesn't always happen — and when it does, I sit up and take notice. Affane Fox tops the pile in both our composite model (rating 46) and our form model (rating 74), with Jaydee Baby sitting just behind in second on both counts. Inclement Moon completes the top three across the board. No disagreement, no noise — just a clean, consistent signal pointing one direction.
This is an A1 contest over 435 metres at Star Pelaw, the North East track that rewards early pace and clean runs through the first bend. A1 is the top tier of graded racing at this level — these dogs are good, and margins will be tight. The prize money is modest at £150 to the winner, but at A1 grade, every run here is a statement of intent. My reading of this race is that it's a properly competitive little contest, but the models have a clear view.
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What To Expect
Trap bias at Star Pelaw over the last 90 days is remarkably even across all six traps — there's no dramatic skew here. Trap 5 leads marginally at 19.4%, followed closely by Trap 3 at 19.3% and Trap 4 at 18.9%. Trap 6 is the least favoured at 18.6%, and Trap 2 sits at 17.9%.
In my view, trap position isn't going to be the deciding factor in this race — the bias spread is too tight for that. What the data does suggest is that the likely winner's profile is a dog with early pace, clean early manoeuvres, and the ability to handle A1 company. Affane Fox, our composite model's top-rated runner, sits in Trap 3 — fractionally the second-best performing trap at this track. That's a minor edge, but I'll take any edge I can find.
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Form
Inclement Moon is an intriguing — and slightly worrying — inclusion at this level. Two wins from four runs, both at A3 grade, but those alternate defeats were messy: bumped at the start in one, virtually trotted out of the boxes in another and forced to check at the third bend. The step up two grades to A1 is a significant ask. That said, when this dog gets a clean run it attacks the lead early, as evidenced by the "Led1" comment in the most recent win, clocking 25.53 seconds. The ceiling might be there — the question is whether A1 company allows it any room to show it.
Affane Fox is the class act on recent form and deserves respect. Consistent finishes in the top three, operating at A1 level without fuss, and that run on July 2nd — just three-quarters of a length behind the winner at this exact course and distance — is exactly the kind of run that says "this dog is ready to go one better." There were bumps at the run-up and first bend to contend with that day, and still managed second. A clear run tonight could be decisive.
Jaydee Baby drops back from OR (Open Race) grade, which is a class relief and should not be underestimated. Cast your eye back to late April and May and you'll see a dog that won three times in A1 and A2 company — 25.82, 25.90, 25.75 seconds — before being campaigned in OR events where the handicap was tougher. The two most recent runs have been modest fourths, with a moderately away comment appearing both times. If the break improves tonight, this is a serious contender.
Smell The Bucks won a decent A2 event in 25.46 seconds on June 20th — that's a sharp time — but has since flopped in two A1 outings with finishing positions of fifth both times, most recently crowded at the run-up and first bend. Trained by G A Foot alongside Inclement Moon, this runner has the raw pace when everything clicks but the last two runs suggest something isn't quite right. I'd want to see a cleaner break before taking a short price.
Santas Bugatti is a classy sort who has been frustratingly consistent without winning — seven placings in the last ten runs, including three consecutive seconds during May. A winner at A2 level in 25.40 seconds back in mid-May, this dog now steps up to A1. The problem is the run comments: bumped, crowded, forced wide — this dog attracts traffic like a magnet. There's ability here, but the trouble-finding pattern is hard to ignore.
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Run Style
This is where the race gets really interesting. Jaydee Baby is the designated front runner in this field — early pace rating of 58/100 with the "QuickAway, Middle, AlwaysLed" notes that pepper the form book. This dog wants to be in front from the boxes, and when it gets its own way, it wins.
Affane Fox is classified as a fader — early pace rating of 77/100, which tells you this dog fires out hard, but the closing rating of zero is a concern. It leads into the first bend well and then needs to hold on rather than finding extra. That profile suits a clean, uncontested lead — not a scrimmage.
Inclement Moon closes from the middle, and Santas Bugatti shares a similar closer profile. Both dogs will need something to go wrong up front to get involved late.
Smell The Bucks is the all-rounder of the group but has been struggling to translate that early fire into results. My concern is bend one — with Affane Fox and Jaydee Baby both likely to press hard from adjacent traps three and four, and Inclement Moon in trap two also showing early pace, there is genuine collision potential at the first corner. Any scrimmage benefits the closers.
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Speed
*seconds per 10 metres — lower is faster
The speed picture here is tighter than it first appears, and the gap between best and last times tells a revealing story. Santas Bugatti's best time of 25.40 seconds is the fastest in this field on paper — that A2 win in May was genuinely rapid — but the last time of 26.44 seconds represents a stark drop-off, and the sec/10m figure of 6.07 confirms a dog that isn't running anywhere near its ceiling right now. Smell The Bucks has the best recorded time at 25.75 seconds but posts the worst last-time figure in the race at 26.84 seconds. That is a dramatic deterioration and flags a dog that simply isn't firing.
Affane Fox's best time of 25.77 seconds and Jaydee Baby's 25.87 seconds are honest benchmarks at this level. Importantly, Jaydee Baby's last time of 26.07 is the best last-time figure in the race apart from Inclement Moon's 25.83 — suggesting it is running closer to form than most of its rivals right now.
Inclement Moon's 25.83 second best is actually respectable — posted at A3 level, so it carries slightly less weight — but if this dog steps up to that same standard against A1 rivals, it won't be disgraced. The speed ratings from our model place Jaydee Baby marginally ahead on the speed measure at 56/100, with Santas Bugatti (53) and Inclement Moon (52) clustering just behind.
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How The Race Might Unfold
My picture of this race begins with a battle for early supremacy between Jaydee Baby and Affane Fox, who both possess significant early pace from adjacent traps four and three respectively. Jaydee Baby's "QuickAway, AlwaysLed" profile means it will try to establish the lead before the first corner — and if it does, its front-running style gives it every chance of dictating from there.
The danger is that Affane Fox, rated 77/100 for early pace, will push right alongside it heading into bend one. Inclement Moon in trap two adds another body charging into that corner from the inside. Given the history of bumping and crowding that follows several of these runners around like a bad reputation, I wouldn't be shocked to see some contact at the first bend.
If Jaydee Baby gets a clean passage to the front — which a class drop from OR grade ought to aid mentally — it sets a solid gallop that suits its profile perfectly. Affane Fox, if it survives the first bend interference, will try to match strides. The closers Santas Bugatti and Inclement Moon will need something to go wrong up front to close. A fast early pace, ironically, might just leave the door ajar for the closers late on — but in my view the decisive moment is those first three seconds out of the traps.
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Final Conclusions
My reading of this race ultimately lands back where the models start: Affane Fox is the most logical selection. Consistent A1 performer, comfortable at this track and distance, in form enough to go close, and that run of three-quarters of a length behind the winner just days ago is a rock-solid piece of evidence. The early pace rating of 77/100 is this dog's weapon — get it out clean and it's dangerous.
The main danger in my view is Jaydee Baby. The class drop from OR back to A1, the front-running profile, and a last time that reads better than most in this field all point to a dog that arrives here well placed. Three wins at this level earlier this year suggest the ability is firmly there.
Inclement Moon is the eyecatcher at big odds — two wins from four runs and a sharp sectional of 25.53 seconds at A3 — but jumping two grades in class is a significant hurdle, and our suitability ratings flag real concerns about trap and distance fit.
For the top three, I'd frame fair odds roughly as: Affane Fox 2/1, Jaydee Baby 5/2, Inclement Moon 6/1.
THE VERDICT: Affane Fox, backed by both models and arriving on the back of a near-miss at this exact track and trip, gets the nod — but keep Jaydee Baby very much onside as the most dangerous rival in the race.