Introduction
There's a genuine puzzle at the heart of this 20:19 contest at Nottingham — our two prediction models simply cannot agree. The Composite Rating model points firmly to Stellas Incharge (rating 56) as the standout, while the Form Rating model makes a compelling counter-argument for Leo The Yank (74) heading the market. Miami Duke rounds out the frame in both assessments, which at least gives us some convergence lower down the order.
This is a 500-metre Open Race at Nottingham, run for a first prize of £325. Nottingham is a track that rewards early pace and clean passages — the first bend is a genuine lottery if the draw conspires against you, and with two debutant-style runners filling traps one and two, there's a slightly chaotic feel to this field. The class level is competitive mid-tier, and my reading of this race is that the real contest comes down to three dogs with meaningful form.
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What To Expect
The trap bias data from the last 90 days at Nottingham tells an interesting story. Trap 2 leads the way at 20.2%, with Trap 3 close behind at 19.5% and Trap 4 at 19.0%. Trap 6 is the graveyard, winning just 14.2% of races — the outside berth clearly disadvantages runners here. Trap 1 is also below-average at 16.6%.
In my view, traps three and four occupy the statistical sweet spot for this race — and it's no coincidence that our two model picks, Stellas Incharge and Leo The Yank, land in precisely those boxes. History says the winner is most likely to emerge from the middle of the draw, and the data is reinforcing what the form already suggests.
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Form
Good Teddy (Trap 1) and Grouchos Gregor (Trap 2) are complete unknowns — no recent form is available for either, their ratings are zeroed out across every metric, and I simply cannot build a case for either of them. In a wide-open race, unknowns occasionally gate-crash, but these two are effectively running blind as far as this analysis is concerned. I'll be setting them aside.
Stellas Incharge is the dog I keep coming back to. The form reads beautifully in context — two wins from the last three completed runs, including a course-and-distance victory on June 18th recorded in 29.99s with the race comment "EP, ALd, Mid-Rls." That tells you everything: early pace, made all, didn't deviate. The one blot on the copybook was the Crd4 interference when finishing sixth on May 29th — a clear excusal. Now stepping up from A3 to OR grade, which is a meaningful class rise, but the trajectory demands respect.
Leo The Yank is the form model's selection and I understand exactly why. This dog has been mixing in A2 company — a higher grade than Stellas Incharge — and winning. The June 19th victory at Nottingham over this exact 500m trip was clocked at 29.92s, faster than anything Stellas has posted. Admittedly, the race comment notes "Crd1, RanOn" — so it overcame interference at the first bend before finishing strongly. That's a dog with serious ability. The concern is consistency; the run in A2 on June 12th produced a third after being crowded at the start and blocked at bend four. Traffic trouble is a recurring theme.
Miami Duke has a fascinating and slightly eclectic profile. Trained by R D Copping, this dog has been bouncing between tracks and distances — Yarmouth sprint trips, a Towcester 500m, and a most recent run over 462m at Yarmouth that produced a win on June 21st. The pace profile screams front-runner: Early rating of 100/100, First Bend Rating of 96/100. This dog wants to be at the head of affairs immediately. Stepping up to OR grade from A4, and the track suitability score of 0/100 at Nottingham gives me genuine pause. It has run here before — an OR3 fifth back in March — but I wouldn't call this a Nottingham specialist.
Jacktavern Ringo has only one piece of recent form to assess — a third over 480m at Nottingham on June 8th in the OR grade, beaten a head. The First Bend Rating of 100/100 tells me this is a flier from the traps, and in OR company, it ran respectably. However, one run is insufficient evidence to make a confident case, and Trap 6 is the worst draw on the card statistically. I find it hard to get excited here.
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Run Style
This race has a fascinating pace dynamic, and I think understanding it is the key to finding the winner. Miami Duke and Jacktavern Ringo are both profiled as pure front-runners — Early ratings of 100/100 for both, and Closing ratings of 0/100. They want the lead immediately, they want it badly, and they tend to fade when pressed in the latter stages.
Stellas Incharge and Leo The Yank, by contrast, are both rated as closers — Early ratings of 0/100, Closing at 100/100. These are dogs that come from behind, which means the pace the front-runners set will be critical to their chance.
My expectation is that Miami Duke from Trap 5 and Jacktavern Ringo from Trap 6 will both aggressively seek early position off the boxes. With both running wide in recent outings, there's a real possibility of interference or a tight first bend — which, given Nottingham's layout, could either help or hinder the closers depending on where the scrimmage develops. If the pace is honest and the front two run into each other, Leo The Yank and Stellas Incharge will come storming home.
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Speed
*seconds per 10 metres — lower is faster. Note: Miami Duke's last time was over 462m at Yarmouth; Jacktavern Ringo's last time was over 480m at Nottingham — direct comparison with 500m times requires caution.
The raw speed picture is more nuanced than it first appears. Miami Duke carries the highest Speed Rating of the field at 69/100, and its recorded best time of 29.81 seconds is the fastest among the contenders on paper. However, I want to flag something critical: that best time was set at Towcester over 500m back in May, and the most recent run was over 462m at Yarmouth — a completely different track and distance profile. Adjusting for like-for-like comparisons, the speed advantage Miami Duke appears to hold may be somewhat illusory.
Leo The Yank's best time of 29.92 seconds, recorded right here at Nottingham over this exact 500m trip just last week, is the most meaningful piece of raw time data in this race. That's a genuinely fast performance at this venue, and the fact it was achieved after being crowded at trap one makes it even more impressive. Stellas Incharge's best of 30.02s at this track is competitive but a fraction slower.
What concerns me about both front-runners from a pure speed perspective is the Closing rating of 0/100 for both Miami Duke and Jacktavern Ringo. In a 500m contest, if you're not finishing off your race, you're giving away lengths in the final straight — and that's precisely where the closers will be hunting them down. The speed ratings alone don't tell the whole story here; run style and stamina reserves will matter enormously.
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How The Race Might Unfold
In my mind's eye, here's how this race plays out. The traps open and Miami Duke from five fires out wide, its Early rating of 100/100 suggesting it will be immediately prominent. Jacktavern Ringo in six will attempt the same. These two wide runners both have form for drifting and bumping — Duke's Yarmouth run noted "LdAwkRnIn" while Ringo has "ClrRun, W" in its most recent — so expect a vigorous battle on the outside of the track heading into bend one.
Meanwhile, Stellas Incharge breaks from three with its characteristic early pace — the "EP, ALd" notation from last week suggests it can be competitive at the point of the first bend despite a closing profile. Leo The Yank, however, has a First Bend Rating of 0/100, and the race comments consistently show crowding and slow away moments. Getting a clean run from Trap 4 is not guaranteed.
If Miami Duke leads into the back straight with Ringo pressing, the pace will be strong. That suits the closers perfectly. I'd expect Leo The Yank, if it avoids trouble, to be travelling well around bend two. Stellas Incharge, running in its preferred middle-to-rails line, will be stalking. The final bend and run-in should see both closers arrive with purpose — and that's where the race is won.
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Final Conclusions
My reading of this race ultimately aligns with the Composite model's selection, and I'm going with Stellas Incharge. The case is straightforward: this dog is operating on its home track, has won here over this exact trip twice in the last five runs, and demonstrated last week — clocking 29.99s from Trap 3 — that it is bang in form. The class rise from A3 to OR is a genuine question mark, but the trajectory of this dog's entire campaign points upwards.
The main danger is Leo The Yank, and I don't dismiss it lightly. The Form Rating model's preference for this dog is well-founded — it has been competing at A2 level, it ran 29.92s here last week, and it clearly has the ability. The problem is traffic. If it gets a clean passage, it might just prove too good.
Miami Duke is interesting as a pace-setter but the lack of Nottingham track knowledge and fading profile in the closing stages keeps it at arm's length for me.
In terms of fair odds for the top three, without official market prices I'd suggest Stellas Incharge deserves to head the market around evens to 6/4, Leo The Yank at 7/4 to 2/1, and Miami Duke at 5/1 representing fair value each-way.
THE VERDICT: Stellas Incharge, in-form, at home, and drawn perfectly in Trap 3, is my selection to land this Open Race at Nottingham.