Introduction
Both of our rating models are singing from the same hymn sheet here, and that doesn't happen as often as you might think. At 17:24 at Towcester over 500 metres, Venetian Will tops our composite model with a rating of 59 and leads the form model on 78 — a clean sweep that demands attention. The second spot belongs to This Approach on both counts, with Heres Ringo and Stellas Charm jostling for relevance further back.
Towcester is a tight, unforgiving circuit — the 500 metre trip here is brutally quick, the first bend arrives in a heartbeat, and positional advantage off the traps matters enormously. This is an OR-grade contest, open race company, with £350 going to the winner. It's not a stellar prize, but the quality here is genuinely mixed, and there's a real race to be had. No deep reasoning model pick is available, so the weight falls entirely on our quantitative analysis and my own reading of the form.
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What To Expect
Trap bias data over the last 90 days at Towcester tells a fairly clear story. Trap 2 leads the way with a 21.4% strike rate from 927 races — the standout number across the six traps. Trap 1 and Trap 3 sit comfortably at around 18%, while Trap 6 brings up the rear at just 13.8%, a meaningful disadvantage on this tight right-hand circuit.
The likely winner's profile, based on both bias and our model data, points toward a runner that can travel smoothly to the first bend without traffic. Historically, our composite model's top-rated dog wins at a rate that rewards short-to-mid prices — and with Venetian Will sitting comfortably clear at 59 composite versus 35 for the nearest market rival Hard Done Boy, the gap here is substantial.
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Form
Venetian Will arrives here off the back of a 630-metre outing at Monmore where crowding at bends one and three effectively ended his race — before that, he was a consistent performer at this track, winning on 24 May over the same 500-metre trip in 29.26 seconds and following up a comfortable win at Monmore on 30 April. The drop back to 500 metres suits him, and trainer K R Hutton clearly has him in good hands. What I find most compelling is the win on 5 April when he overcame crowding at bends one and three-quarters to lead from bend four — that's a dog that finds a way.
Stellas Charm is coming from a 660-metre trip at Sheffield where she finished a clear second, and before that three runs at A3 Nottingham — a lower standard. The track figures of 0/100 for Towcester are a red flag, and her first bend rating of 0/100 suggests she'll be making up ground from the back rather than dictating anything early. She's consistent in placings but this trip and track look like a significant ask.
Slaneyside Ross has his last two runs at Hove over 515 metres, finishing fifth both times, and most of his form is built on different circuits entirely — Hove, Central Park. Trainer D J Elcock brings him in here, but the track suitability rating of 0/100 and trap suitability of just 1/100 from trap three are damning numbers. His one Towcester appearance on 17 May resulted in a fifth following a bump at the quarter-mile mark.
Hard Done Boy has been running at Hove in 515-metre contests, placing second twice from his last three runs there, but his last effort — a fifth at Hove on 18 June — was modest enough. His Towcester form goes back over a year, and while he managed a third there in May 2025, the track and distance suitability scores are both 0/100, and his last time of 30.19 seconds on this track doesn't inspire. He's a confirmed fader in pace profile, which on this quick Towcester layout is a concern.
This Approach is the one who genuinely tests my faith in Venetian Will, and I'll be honest about that. Three wins from five runs at Towcester over 500 metres — including a brilliant 28.97 second victory on 23 May — mark him out as a genuine contender. The step up in class from OR2 to OR is noted, and his last run on 30 May, a fourth after being blocked at the quarter-mile and bumped at bend two, was full of excuses. Under R J Holloway, this dog performs at this track.
Heres Ringo is a mystery to me in this company. His last five finishes read 5-4-6-4-5 and while there's a win on his card from 29 March at Towcester in 29.18 seconds, his most recent efforts at Sheffield IV grade — fifth and fourth with crowding at bend one — suggest he's in a rough patch. The trap suitability of 1/100 from the outside berth doesn't help, and I'll be looking elsewhere.
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Run Style
This is where the race gets genuinely interesting. I'm looking at three confirmed closers — Venetian Will, Stellas Charm, and Heres Ringo — against three faders in Slaneyside Ross, Hard Done Boy, and This Approach. In practice on a tight 500-metre Towcester layout, the faders are really early-pace merchants who try to establish position fast, then hope to hold on.
This Approach is the one who catches my eye here. The form comments tell a clear story: "Mid,QAw,ALed," "MidToRls,EP,Ld 1/4," "MidTRls,EP,SoonLed,WnWll" — this dog wants to be on the front end and uses his early pace to devastating effect. Slaneyside Ross is similarly quick away, but his record on this track with trouble at first bend is a concern from Trap 3.
Hard Done Boy will try to press from Trap 4, but his pace profile screams fader and his crowding history on the run-up is notable. With three early-pace dogs from traps 3, 4, and 5, the first bend is going to be a compression point. Venetian Will, a closer from Trap 1, hugs the rails and will be looking for a gap — his race comment history is littered with "RlsTMid" and late surges. A scrimmage at bend one genuinely plays into his hands.
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Speed
*seconds per 10 metres — lower is faster
The raw speed picture here is led convincingly by This Approach, whose best time of 28.80 seconds over this exact 500-metre course is the fastest in the field by a meaningful margin. That's a serious clocking at Towcester. The concern is the gap to his last time of 29.73 — a full second slower — which coincided with a run plagued by interference, so I'm inclined to forgive it rather than read it as a decline in form.
Venetian Will's best of 29.25 seconds is solid for this grade, and his last recorded time here of 29.50 — note that his most recent run was at Monmore over 630 metres — suggests he retains his peak capabilities. Heres Ringo clocked 29.28 at Sheffield in his last outing, which is respectable, and his best of 29.08 places him in the speed conversation. But that best came at Yarmouth over 462 metres on a quicker surface — translating that directly to Towcester's 500 metres requires caution.
Stellas Charm is simply too slow for this company based on raw times. Her best of 30.70 and a last run of 30.97 would leave her multiple lengths adrift of the pace-setters, and her speed rating of 0/100 reflects that. She's not a threat unless this race turns into complete carnage.
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How The Race Might Unfold
My reading of this race has a very busy opening forty metres. This Approach from Trap 5 is the natural leader — he's been described as "Mid,QAw,ALed" and "EP,Ld 1/4" in multiple recent runs, and he'll want to clear across to his favoured rails-to-middle position early. Slaneyside Ross from Trap 3 and Hard Done Boy from Trap 4 are both rated as early-pace faders who will try to press forward simultaneously, creating what promises to be a congested run into the first bend.
If This Approach gets a clean break, he'll lead on the bridle and the race is set up for a sustained battle. But history suggests he doesn't always get the clean passage he needs — the 30 May run showed that when he's blocked at the quarter-mile, he has no Plan B.
Venetian Will from the inside rail will tuck in and look to travel economically to the first bend, absorbing whatever chaos erupts around him. His closing pace rating of 100/100 tells you everything — he's at his best when he can wind up late. If the pace is honest and traffic clears, he arrives with a devastating late burst. I think that's the most likely scenario, and it's the scenario our model has been built to identify.
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Final Conclusions
My view aligns firmly with both models — Venetian Will is the horse to beat in this race, and the case for him is multi-layered. He has course form, he's been raised through this grade before, he handles trouble (and he will need to from Trap 1), and his closing pace sets him apart. The drop back from 630 metres at Monmore to 500 metres here is a positive — his Monmore runs were always likely to be transitional.
The main danger is absolutely This Approach. Three wins at Towcester over this exact trip, the fastest best time in the field, and a Trap 5 draw that gives him a chance to fire. He's stepping up in class from OR2 to OR, which I'd normally flag heavily, but his times suggest he has the raw ability to compete at this level. If he gets a clean early run, Venetian Will might not catch him.
Heres Ringo is third in our model and I can see why — the best time of 29.08 is eye-catching — but his recent form is ragged and the outside trap is a graveyard at Towcester.
In my view, fair odds would look something like: Venetian Will 6/4, This Approach 9/4, Heres Ringo 7/1.
THE VERDICT: Venetian Will is the classiest closer in the field, and with early-pace chaos from traps 3, 4, and 5 likely to create exactly the gap he needs, back him to make his superior finishing speed count.