Introduction
Tonight at Star Pelaw, we have what looks like one of the most lopsided races you'll find in UK greyhound racing — but appearances can be deceptive in a four-runner OR where all contestants share the same kennel. The 18:39 OR over 435 metres features four dogs all trained by R J Holloway, which immediately tells you this is a specialist track event rather than a traditional open race with outside entries. Our models couldn't be clearer: Mickys Tribute from trap six holds a composite rating of 64, streets ahead of the next-best Razldazl Barkley at 43. Our form model agrees, giving Mickys Tribute an average performance score of 88 — the highest in the race by some distance. When the composite model and the form model both point to the same dog this emphatically, I take notice.
Star Pelaw is a compact circuit where pace and track knowledge matter enormously, and the 435m trip suits a certain type of dog — one that can travel sweetly through the first bend and maintain that momentum across the back straight. Tonight's field is well-matched in terms of kennel affiliation, but there's a meaningful ability gap between the standout and the rest of the field.
What To Expect
The trap bias data from the last 90 days at Star Pelaw makes for interesting reading. Trap 5 leads the way with 26.7% of winners, but there's no runner breaking from that berth tonight. Trap 3 is next-best at 22.6%, which nudges Dazl Hermes into the conversation, though our model still puts that dog well below the favourite. Trap 6 — where Mickys Tribute lines up — sits at 16.7%, fractionally below average. My reading is that the trap bias is relevant but it won't override a 21-point composite advantage. In a field this small, individual ability tends to be the primary determinant.
Based on recent winning times here, the track plays to closers and dogs with reliable early sectionals. The winner typically posts between 25.8 and 26.5 seconds over this trip, so we're looking for a dog that can clock in that range.
Form
Mickys Tribute has been in devastating form, winning four of his last five starts including three in a row at this exact track and distance. The run on 20 June was particularly eye-catching — he clocked 25.78 seconds, a track record, breaking from wide after a quick away and leading all the way (noted QAw,W,ALed(TkRec)). That followed 26.08s and 26.07s winning efforts in previous weeks, suggesting he's not just winning — he's winning comfortably and improving. He also won over 285m at Hove in D1 company, showing versatility, but his form around Star Pelaw's 435m circuit is the stuff that dreams are made of.
Razldazl Barkley has been runner-up in both his recent outings at Star Pelaw, posting 26.06s and 26.30s. He won over 500m at Hove in A2 company (29.43s — a smart time) and was baulked at grade A1, suggesting there's ability here. However, his record over this trip and at this track paints him as a solid but second-best performer, and that's exactly how the model sees him too.
Dazl Hermes has been a model of consistency without winning — a string of thirds at Hove in A1 company (including a creditable run of 29.80s beaten only two lengths) plus a fourth here at Star Pelaw last week. The drop to 435m from 500m could suit, and there's enough ability in those Hove form figures to warrant respect. But a composite rating of 36 versus the favourite's 64 is a steep mountain to climb.
Cloheena Rodney won at Hove in A8 company on 14 June — a wide-open grade — and has otherwise been running in the back half of the field in OR company here at Star Pelaw. The form figures (3-1-3-4-4) are modest, and the class and track suitability scores from our model are the lowest in the field. In my view, this is the one to take on.
Run Style
This race sets up for an interesting tactical battle despite the small field. Razldazl Barkley has a pure early-pace profile — the data tags him as a Fader with an early pace score of 100/100 but a closing speed ratio of just 21/100. He'll want to get to the front from trap one and set a strong gallop. The question is whether he can sustain it over 435 metres against stronger competition.
In contrast, Mickys Tribute is classified as a Closer — early pace score of 0, closing speed of 100. That might seem contradictory given his winning comments often show "ALed" and early positioning, but my reading of this is that he possesses the gear to come from off the pace if needed. In his track record run, the early wide break (trap six, wide berth) allowed him to move onto the pace naturally rather than force it.
Dazl Hermes is also a Closer with a closing speed of 79, which could set up a two-dog finish in the latter stages if Razldazl Barkley does fade. Cloheena Rodney is another front-runner type who fades, making for a potentially crowded early stage from traps one and four.
Speed
*seconds per 10 metres — lower is faster
The speed data tells a compelling story. Mickys Tribute's best sectional time (the time for the first segment of the race) is 5.54 seconds, and on a track where the first bend is critical, his first bend rating of 56/100 is the highest in the field — which matters in a four-runner race where position at the first turn is often decisive.
What stands out most is the consistency of Mickys Tribute's sectional times: 5.55s, 5.64s, 5.66s across his recent wins. He's metronomically reliable, which is the hallmark of a specialist. In contrast, Dazl Hermes's last time was 26.76s versus a best of 26.05s — that kind of variance suggests inconsistency, and our model will have picked that up.
Razldazl Barkley's average sectional of 5.65s is slower out of the traps despite the early-pace profile in longer races. Over 435m, he won't have the back straight to make up ground if he's not swift enough through the first bend.
How The Race Might Unfold
My picture of this race: Razldazl Barkley breaks quickest from the inside rail in trap one, as his early-pace score suggests he'll fire from the lids. Cloheena Rodney from trap four is another dog who tends to show early, and the two of them could have a brief tussle for the lead going into bend one. Dazl Hermes from three and Mickys Tribute from six will be more patient in their beginnings.
The real question is what happens at the second bend. If Razldazl Barkley has done his job through the first 200 metres and led, the question is whether he has enough in the tank to hold on. His closing speed ratio of 21/100 says he won't — he's a fader at heart, and three-quarter distance is where runners with that profile typically start to struggle.
Mickys Tribute's wide draw in trap six shouldn't be a major concern given his consistent wide-running style across recent wins. He's been noted "Wide" or "Wide, SoonHandy" in several comments, suggesting he's comfortable making up ground from a wide berth. By the home straight, if the pace has been honest, my model and I both think he'll be finishing strongest.
Final Conclusions
This is about as clear-cut a race as our composite model will flag all season. Mickys Tribute has a 21-point advantage over the nearest rival, a performance score 17 points higher than the next-best, and a form line of 1-1-1-1-2 at the track with a track record to his name. Our model's top pick and form rating both point unanimously to the same dog — and that kind of convergence is what I look for when considering whether to side with the data.
The main danger is Razldazl Barkley, who is a genuine OR-class performer with a Hove win at A2 standard. On a faster night or with different company, he could trouble the favourite. The fair odds for this field based on our model's ratings would put Mickys Tribute around 1/3 to 4/7 depending on market, Razldazl Barkley around 5/2, Dazl Hermes around 5/1, and Cloheena Rodney around 8/1. If the market offers anything longer than evens about the favourite, that looks like value.
Dazl Hermes holds a place chance if the early pace is fierce enough to stretch the field and bring his closing speed into play, but the model's composite score of 36 versus 64 for the winner is a significant gap to bridge.
THE VERDICT: Mickys Tribute is a track specialist in devastating form and the model's verdict is emphatic — back him to make it five wins from six at Star Pelaw.