Of all yesterday's races, the A2 over Sunderland's 450m at 17:56 was the one that told the most interesting story, mostly because the result and the predictions barely agreed with each other.
The model had Linton Ralph as the pick, with Kippers Puma and Marwood Magic rounding out the top three. Emers Noddy, from trap 1, was rated only fifth in the field. What actually happened was Emers Noddy taking it up from the rail at the quarter mark, the run comment reading simply "Rls,Led 1/4", and holding that spot the rest of the way to win at 4.00.
The far more interesting story is what happened to the two dogs rated above her. Kippers Puma, the model's second pick, actually led early from trap 2 before fading out of it entirely, finishing sixth of six, a textbook case of a dog showing plenty of early pace but not the finish to back it up when pressed. Marwood Magic, rated third, was slowly away and caught up in traffic at the first turn ("SAw,Mid,Crd1") and never really got competitive from there, eventually fifth.
Linton Ralph, the top-rated dog, actually ran his race. Racing from mid-to-rails and finishing well ("MidToRls,FinWell"), he was beaten only a length in second, which suggests the rating wasn't wrong about his ability, he just met one that had first run and never gave it up. Charlies Topshot, held up in traffic at the third bend, stayed on for third having had to work around trouble.
The takeaway here is less about the model missing the winner and more about what each dog showed. Emers Noddy has now demonstrated she can lead from the rail from trap 1 and keep finding more when asked, worth remembering next time she gets that kind of run. Linton Ralph's finishing effort in defeat was arguably more encouraging than a win with an easy lead would have been, a dog to keep on side. Kippers Puma, by contrast, is a case study in early speed without the petrol to back it up over this trip, a pattern worth watching for if she steps back up in distance or faces a similar pace scenario again.