Yesterday's 15:13 Open Race at Towcester over 500m had a bit of everything: a short-priced favourite that got run down, a model-rated outsider that ran into the frame at big odds, and a winner that did it the hard way from the rails.
As Happy As Bryn (trap 1) led from the break and never gave it up, holding on for the win in 29.72 despite racing to the rail and middle for most of the trip. The chasing pack made it interesting: Southfield Hugo, sent off the 1.44 market leader from trap 2, ran on into second but couldn't peg back the leader, finishing a length and a quarter adrift after getting crowded around the quarter mark. For a dog that short in the market to be beaten tells its own story about how the race actually unfolded, the pace up front was too strong to be reeled in late.
The most interesting piece of the puzzle is Canya Step. Sent off at 17.00, a big price in a six-runner race, it was actually the model's top-rated runner on composite score, some way clear of the rest of the field on our numbers. It ran into traffic early, getting carried wide and checked at the first bend, and still found its way through to finish third, beaten three and a quarter lengths. That's a dog that overcame real trouble in transit to make the frame at a price the market had written off, exactly the kind of run that tends to look better in hindsight than it did on the day.
Further back, Moulton Mickey and Sonic Snowman both had legitimate excuses, wide and checked trips that cost them any chance of troubling the principals, while Crafty Filo never got competitive after early interference of its own.
The upshot: As Happy As Bryn confirmed itself an out-and-out leader over course and distance, a dangerous type whenever it gets a clear break. Southfield Hugo's promotion to market leader looks to have been more about reputation than raw pace on this evidence, a big price might be the more interesting angle next time out at a shorter trip or with a better draw. And Canya Step is the one to note down: a model-favoured runner that overcame a troubled passage to hit the frame at 17.00 is worth watching for a big run when it gets a clean passage.