The 20:28 A3 over 525m at Waterford yesterday was the most compelling result of the night, and it's a race worth picking apart because almost nothing went to script.
The model's top-rated dog, Marys Fault in trap 3, went off as the shortest price in the race at 2.00 and had every reason to be favoured — best composite score in the field at 56, a clean early exchange according to the comment (QAw, EvCh — quick away, every chance), and a predicted finish of first. Instead she faded to fourth, beaten three lengths, with nothing in the running line suggesting trouble in transit. That's a below-par performance rather than a hard-luck story, and it's the kind of result that's worth filing away — a dog who looked the part on paper simply didn't deliver when the price demanded it.
The race instead went the way of Slaneyside Tegan in trap 1, sent off at 3.00 and rated only fifth by the model coming in. Her comment tells the story: EvAw, LdNrL — an even break followed by taking the lead close to the line, suggesting a strong, sustained finishing effort rather than a lucky run through a falling field. She ran a genuine time of 29.94, right with the pace of the operation, and did it from a trap that isn't typically the strongest draw at this course and grade.
Giddyup Bonnie (trap 4) ran on for second at the same 3.00 SP, backing up her billing as the model's number three pick, while Ballygur Michael (trap 6) rounded out the frame in third after being challenged at the third bend and fading right on the line — he'd been the model's second pick and wasn't far away from vindicating it.
The upshot: Slaneyside Tegan looks like a dog whose finishing effort here is worth remembering next time she lines up in this class, particularly if she gets another trap that lets her creep into contention late. Marys Fault, meanwhile, is one to watch for a bounce-back — a below-par run at a short price from a dog with the best figures in the field often gets put right next time rather than repeated.