The A2 grade race at Valley over 460m yesterday afternoon was the sort of result that's worth pulling apart properly, because it went almost entirely against what the model — and the form book — expected. Baggios Wildcat, sent off at 5.50 from trap 3, was rated only the sixth and last-fancied runner in the field on the model's predictions, yet led the race home in 29.01 with the running line "LedRnIn,Mid" — meaning she was still finding her way to the front deep into the race rather than dominating from the front, before getting there in the run-in.
The model's actual top picks tell the story of how wrong this one went for the favoured order. Constitution, installed as the model's number one selection with a composite score of 48, was sent off from trap 4 and could only manage fifth, with a running comment of "SAw,Mid" — a slow away, stuck in the pack, never really involved. Bluejig Aoife, the model's second pick at 46, ran her race well and finished second at odds of 3.00, backing up the model's read on her even if she couldn't get past the winner. Santas Ranger, third-fancied at 44, rounded out the frame in third from a wide draw, described as "EvCh,Wide" — every chance, but stuck out wide for the run.
What actually happened is a useful lesson in the limits of pre-race data: Baggios Wildcat's running line shows she was menacing in the closing stages having spent most of the race in the pack, the kind of finishing turn of foot that doesn't always show up clearly in past sectional figures until it does. At 5.50 she wasn't a rank outsider, more a dog the market had some respect for that the model's composite score hadn't fully caught up with yet.
The dog to watch from this race going forward is Baggios Wildcat herself. A win from an unfancied position, with a running comment suggesting she was still building into the race at the finish, is the kind of form line that can mark a dog on the upgrade — one for the kennel tracker next time she's declared, particularly if she drops back to a similar or slightly easier grade where that turn of foot could be even more decisive.