The 6:11pm OR at Harlow over 415 metres produced the most interesting result of Sunday's card, and it wasn't the one the model expected. Doreens Ash, rated sixth of six by the composite, broke smartly from trap 2 and led every step of the way to win in 26.67 seconds at 3.75. The top-rated dog, Simon John (trap 5), trailed home last of six.
The run comments tell the story of a race that went wrong for just about everyone except the winner. Simon John was forced to check on the run-up and then badly bumped at the first bend, effectively ending his race before it started. At 17.00 in the market, the layers clearly didn't fancy him despite the top rating, and they were right. Salems Amaretto, sent off joint-favourite at 3.75 alongside the winner, showed early pace from trap 6 but was crowded at the first and forced to check at the fourth, never recovering.
Doreens Ash's run comment reads simply: "QAw, ALed, Rails." Quick away, always led, on the rails. No trouble, no interference, just a clean run from a dog who broke well and found the rail. That's the blueprint for winning at Harlow over 415 metres, where early pace and the inside position matter enormously.
Tinks Jester (trap 4) ran a fine race to finish second in 26.75, challenging and getting crowded at the second and fourth but staying on strongly for 3.00. He lost a length to the winner but ran with credit through a rough race. Untold Ripple (trap 1), the second pick, was very slow away but ran on to take third, suggesting the rating was right even if the start cost any chance of winning.
Bonville Secret (trap 3) was bumped at the first and forced to check at the third, finishing fourth at 9.00. The bumping at the first bend was clearly the story of this race, and it's where the model's predictions fell apart. When four of six runners report interference at bend one, form goes out the window.
The dog to take out of this race going forward is Tinks Jester. He handled the trouble better than most, stayed on when others stopped, and at 3.00 in the market was clearly respected. If he draws a cleaner race next time, the form looks rock solid. Doreens Ash, meanwhile, proved that in OR company at Harlow, early pace from a good draw trumps ratings. One to watch whenever she draws low at this track.