The OR grade 480m at Newcastle at 20:19 on Thursday was one of those races that rewards a closer look, because the result was almost the opposite of what every available signal suggested.
Kellies Emerald, drawn in trap 3 and sent off at 8.0, was the model's sixth and last-rated runner. The market agreed. And yet she hit the front at the first quarter marker and held on to win in 28.77 seconds, with Carrick Fergie (4.33, predicted 4th) running on into second and the 2.20 favourite Zenith Tanju finishing third after a bump disrupted the race at a critical point.
The run comment on Zenith Tanju tells the story plainly: 'LedT 1/4&Bmp'. The favourite broke well, hit the lead, took a bump at the quarter mark, and the momentum was gone. Kellies Emerald, drawn just inside in trap 3, was already committed to the rail and had clean air through the incident. In a 480m race, interference at the first quarter marker is often decisive — there is not enough of the race remaining to fully recover.
Frenchyarrow, the model's second pick at 2.75, finished fifth. The race pace was clearly faster than the data anticipated, and Kellies Emerald's early sectional ability — underweighted by the model given her overall form — proved decisive on the day.
The dog to take forward is Zenith Tanju without question. A well-fancied favourite at OR grade over 480m at Newcastle, beaten by a bump at the critical moment, retains every right to take a race at this level. The next time this dog lines up in similar conditions, Thursday's run is a positive not a negative. Carrick Fergie also ran well into second and looks a fair proposition in OR company going forward.