The 19:49 at Hove yesterday was the sort of race that reminds you why greyhound form analysis needs to go beyond ratings and into race shape. The model's top pick, Hard Done Boy in trap 2, never got to show what he could do. By the time the field hit the first bend he had already been crowded on the run-up, knocked sideways before the race had properly begun. He finished fifth of six.
Into that chaos stepped Venetian Jock from trap 3, sent off at 10/1 as the longest price in the field. His run comment says it all: early pace, found the rails, had the lead by the third bend, and held on from there. His winning time of 30.20 seconds is respectable for OR3 grade over 515 metres. Venetian Jock is classified as a closer by pace profile — the kind of dog who normally runs on late — but the scramble at the break gave him a clean path that his pace type rarely enjoys, and he made the most of it.
The punters' favourite Ballymac Kinga was sent off at 2.75, which RTD rated third in the field but the market elevated to top price. She was interfered with at the first bend and finished last, beaten just a short head behind fifth. That is a rough result for backers, though the run comment suggests she was unlucky with traffic rather than beaten on ability.
Ower Cracker at 7/1 ran the race she was expected to — always handy on the rails, finishing second — and is a dog to keep onside at Hove over 515 metres. She has the profile for this track and distance, and a clear run could flip a place into a win.
As for Venetian Jock, file him under unpredictable-but-dangerous rather than reliable bet. He needed chaos to win last night, and you rarely get to plan for that. But the fact he led from inside the halfway point when faster dogs were in trouble tells you there is a turn of pace there when conditions allow.