Zooming out from single days, the last seven cards give a fair read on how the prediction models are actually doing right now. Across 865 races from 7 July through 13 July, the top-rated pick in each race won outright 230 times, a first-pick strike rate of 26.6 per cent, and finished in the frame on 380 occasions, a place rate of 43.9 per cent. Widen that to any of the top three predicted runners landing the race and the numbers climb sharply: 560 wins from 865 races, a 64.7 per cent hit rate, with 764 races, well over 88 per cent, seeing at least one top-three pick make the frame.
Day to day there has been some natural variation, as there always is with a sport this dependent on trap draws and first-bend luck. The 9 July card was the softest of the week on a smaller sample of 80 races, with the first pick winning 21 times, a 26.3 per cent rate broadly in line with the weekly average, while 8 July was the strongest by volume with 151 races and 104 top-three wins. Nothing in the week points to a blind spot opening up in a particular grade or distance band, the swings look like the normal noise of a sport where the best dog on paper does not always get the cleanest run.
The second and third-rated picks continue to contribute meaningfully rather than just making up the numbers, with 185 and 147 wins respectively across the week. Taken together, the last seven days back up what the model has been showing for a while now: a first pick that is right roughly one time in four, and a top-three net that is right closer to two times in three. That is the kind of consistency that should give confidence heading into the next batch of cards.