Eight days of data give a reasonable window on recent model performance. Across 1,128 races from May 30th to today, the first-pick win rate sits at 22.7%. The first-pick place rate is 41.4%. Any-top-3 wins land at 58.7% of all races.
The week has not been linear. May 30th was the standout day with 48 wins from 178 races at 27%, and May 31st was similarly strong at 32% from a smaller 97-race card. From June 1st onwards the numbers have been tighter: 20.3%, 28%, 22.2%, and 20.1% for successive days before Friday's 15.9% from a 264-race card.
The softer rate on larger cards is a pattern worth understanding. When 250 or more races are active in a single day, many of them come from lower-grade mid-week Irish meetings where form signals are harder to separate and historical data depth is thinner for some of the smaller venues. The model does not have the same volume of prior runs to draw on in those cases, which naturally reduces its predictive edge. On UK cards of 100 races or fewer, the first-pick rate has consistently run above 25% in this window.
The any-top-3 coverage of 58.7% is the more stable figure across the week, showing noticeably less daily variance than the headline win rate. When the first pick misses, the second or third selection has been backing it up in more than half of all races across the period.
Early data for today shows 9 wins from 22 races (40.9%), though that sample is very small and includes races still being settled. Today's full results are building through the evening at the results page.