Seven days, 860 races, and a first-pick win rate of 22.6%. That is the headline number from the prediction model's weekly performance review, and it sits comfortably within the range you would expect from a well-calibrated system. The first pick placed in 349 of those races, a place rate of 40.6%, which is where the model's consistency really shows.
The broader top-three figures are strong. At least one of the three predicted contenders won in 504 of 860 races, a hit rate of 58.6%. The place rate across the top three reached 83%, meaning that in five out of every six races, at least one predicted runner finished in the frame. Those numbers build confidence that the underlying ratings are reading the form accurately, even on days when the top pick does not cross the line first.
Day by day, the picture is more varied. Tuesday was the standout, with 34 first-pick winners from 143 races, a win rate of 23.8% backed by an any-top-three win rate of 60.8%. Friday was the busiest day with 185 races and 46 first-pick winners, a rate of 24.9% that represents the week's best single-day performance. Wednesday, the most recent full day, returned 23 winners from 131 races at 17.6%, which was the weakest day of the week but still delivered 71 any-top-three winners (54.2%).
The quieter days, Monday with 57 races and Sunday with 80, both returned solid first-pick win rates around the 25-29% mark, though the smaller samples make those figures less reliable as indicators.
Looking at the second and third picks specifically, the second pick won 169 times (19.7%) and the third pick won 142 times (16.5%). That gradient, where each successive pick wins slightly less often, is exactly what a well-ordered ranking system should produce. If the second pick were winning more than the first, something would be fundamentally wrong with the ratings. The fact that the gradient is smooth and consistent across a large sample is a good sign for the model's structural integrity.
No prediction system gets every race right. The goal is to identify the most likely contenders more often than chance would suggest, and across 860 races this week, the data says that is happening.