The pick of tonight's card comes at Star Pelaw, where an A1 over 435m throws up a proper puzzle at 20:34. Jaydee Baby, drawn in trap 4, gets the nod, and the case is built on more than one number. He was fourth last time out, but that run came in Open Race company, the toughest grade going, so tonight represents a step down rather than a step up. He also owns the fastest recorded times in this field, races for the best trainer record at the track (30 per cent), and does it all as a front runner, which is exactly the running style this track rewards. At Star Pelaw's A1 grade over this trip, a dog ranked first on speed wins 29 per cent of the time, and a dog ranked first on composite wins nearly 35 per cent, both well above what you would expect by chance in a small sample.
The closest thing to a spanner in the works is Affane Fox from trap 3, runner-up in this exact grade and trip last time and the highest average performer in the race on paper. But the running style is the concern. He is what the data calls a fader, quick to show but prone to losing ground once things get serious, and that is an awkward trait at a track built around holding the lead rather than chasing it down. He does have the compensation of the best-performing trap in a small sample, so he cannot be dismissed.
Inclement Moon and Santas Bugatti are both stepping up from lower grades and look to be finding out rather than winning tonight, while Smell The Bucks, fifth in this same race last time, has the weakest figures in the field. It is only a five-runner race but there is real depth to the form, and Jaydee Baby's blend of raw speed, trainer form and suitable running style makes him the most rounded case on offer.