Monmore's S1 630m at 17:01 is an absolute marathon by greyhound standards, and the headline story writes itself. Makeit A Breeze has won six of her eight previous starts at this exact track and distance — a 75% course-and-distance record that simply has no comparison in today's card. Last time out she produced a perfect 100-rated performance at S2 grade, a step below tonight's company, and five of her last six runs have come in at 71 or above. Her average performance rating of 84 is the highest in this field by a significant margin.
The one complication is trap 2. The draw stats at Monmore S1 630m show trap 2 winning just 8.70% of the time from 23 runs — the worst position on the card by some distance. That's not trivial. But at 630m, the race develops over a much longer journey than a sprint, and a dog of Makeit A Breeze's ability has ample time to work through from an unfavourable early position. That 75% course-and-distance record has been compiled from various trap draws over eight attempts — she has clearly overcome worse situations before.
The model's composite leader, Caldera Flow in trap 1, makes for an interesting contrast. She carries the highest speed rating (79), the best first-bend number (100) and maximum early pace, and trap 1 wins 22.22% at this grade and trip — the best draw available. The problem is she is a Fader by profile, has never raced over 630m before, and there is a real question over whether a dog who burns brightest in the first two bends has the stamina to hold on against a genuine stayer running from behind over the last two.
Snazzy Honey in trap 3 is the main danger if things go wrong for the selection. Trained by the highest-achieving handler in today's race (30% win rate over recent months), she has run consistently in the 75 to 82 range recently and draws a workable position. She is the one to take for place purposes if you want an alternative angle.