The 19:11:00 at Newcastle delivers the standout contest on today's card — a Open Race — the premier class event over 290 metres with 5 going to post. It's a race that demands closer inspection, and the data backs that up.
Pace is the key question here. Tinnock Stellar (Trap 1) and Niosfearrnabolt (Trap 2) both possess genuine early speed, which sets up a contested front end. That early battle could play into the hands of a closer — and there's one in the field.
Bramble Idris (Trap 5, the orange jacket) — trained by C L Hardy — emerges as the form pick. Recent form reads 2-5-1-1-6 — 2 wins from the last 5 starts. Last ran 16.96 over course and distance. Bramble Idris is tactically versatile, able to lead or come from off the pace. A speed rating of 62/100 relative to this field confirms the edge on raw pace. Best time over this trip: 16.96s.
Foulkscourt Bono (Trap 4) is the principal danger. Recent form reads 1-5-3-4-4 — a winner last time out. Last ran 16.71 over course and distance. Foulkscourt Bono is a strong closer who saves the best for the final drive. Key credentials: strong from this trap draw (66/100). Field speed rating sits at 75/100.
Of the remainder, Tickets Outlaw (Trap 3, form 4-1-4-2-2) could benefit if the pace collapses; Tinnock Stellar (Trap 1, form 2-2-4-4-4) needs improvement on recent efforts; Niosfearrnabolt (Trap 2, form 5-2-3-4-5) needs improvement on recent efforts.
The Verdict: Bramble Idris from Trap 5 gets the vote. With 2 wins from the last 5 starts, the form is there to see. Foulkscourt Bono is the clear danger, but the edge on pace, form, and conditions favours the selection. A genuine betting race — and one where the data has a strong opinion.