The 18:14:00 at Yarmouth delivers the standout contest on today's card — a A1 — the elite of the sport event over 462 metres with 5 going to post. It's a race that demands closer inspection, and the data backs that up.
Yarmouth is one of the fairest circuits in UK racing, with a long home straight that catches front runners close home — all-the-way winners account for just 20% of results here despite the 462m trip. At A1, trap 3 has been the most productive box (22.88% from 319 runs) while trap 5 is the weakest draw on the card (16.19%). Queen Lana blazes from the traps with maximum early pace and will try to lead from trap 5, but the pace profile here means she is prime candidate to get caught in the run-in. The closers and all-rounders drawn inside should benefit from sitting off the pace and finishing strongly.
Gundy (Trap 2, drawn narrowly) — trained by C R Morris — emerges as the form pick. Recent form reads 3-1-2-2-1 — 2 wins from the last 5 starts. Last ran 28.34 over course and distance. Gundy is tactically versatile, able to lead or come from off the pace. The conditions are ideal: comfortable at the trip. Best time over this trip: 27.86s. Won here four days ago at the same grade — recent course-and-distance winner is the strongest credential on the card.
Alberts Mary (Trap 3) is the principal danger. Recent form reads 5-6-1-1-4 — 2 wins from the last 5 starts. Last ran 28.43 over course and distance. Alberts Mary is tactically versatile, able to lead or come from off the pace. Comp leader in best trap with a top trainer — the clear alternative if she bounces from last time.
Of the remainder, Gossip Kid (Trap 6, form 2-6-1-2-1) could benefit if the pace collapses; Queen Lana (Trap 5, form 1-3-5-2-1) needs improvement on recent efforts; Ballygloss Mike (Trap 4, form 4-1-1-1-3) could benefit if the pace collapses.
Condition data reinforces the picture. The trap bias breakdown at Yarmouth in this grade reads: T1:18.88% T2:20.61% T3:22.88% T4:18.06% T5:16.19% T6:20%. T3 best box at A1 (22.88%, 319 runs), T5 structurally weak (16.19%). Comp R1 wins 26.17%. Speed R1 wins 27.09%. Model performs well here — trust the ratings.
The Verdict: Gundy from Trap 2 gets the vote. With 2 wins from the last 5 starts, the form is there to see. Gundy is the clear danger, but the edge on pace, form, and conditions favours the selection. A genuine betting race — and one where the data has a strong opinion.