The 17:56:00 at Dunstall Park delivers the standout contest on today's card — a S1 — the elite of the sport event over 660 metres with 6 going to post. It's a race that demands closer inspection, and the data backs that up.
Pace is the key question here. Mister Baileys (Trap 5) and Midget Lee (Trap 4) and Seomra Ophelia (Trap 6) both possess genuine early speed, which sets up a contested front end. That early battle could play into the hands of a closer — and there's one in the field.
Mister Baileys (Trap 5, the orange jacket) — trained by S W Deakin — emerges as the form pick. Recent form reads 3-3-1-3-3 — a winner last time out. Last ran 40.70 over course and distance. Mister Baileys is one who tends to burn bright early before fading in the closing stages, with an early-pace rating of 100/100. The conditions are ideal: solid course form. A speed rating of 96/100 relative to this field confirms the edge on raw pace. Best time over this trip: 39.24s.
Sky Blue Jeff (Trap 1) is the principal danger. Recent form reads 5-1-2-1-2 — 2 wins from the last 5 starts. Last ran 40.82 over course and distance. Sky Blue Jeff is a strong closer who saves the best for the final drive.
Of the remainder, No Jay No (Trap 2, form 2-4-4-1-5) could benefit if the pace collapses; Midget Lee (Trap 4, form 6-1-5-1-2) needs improvement on recent efforts; Brosna Cash (Trap 3, form 4-4-4-3-2) could benefit if the pace collapses; Seomra Ophelia (Trap 6, form 1-6-5-5-5) needs improvement on recent efforts.
The Verdict: Mister Baileys from Trap 5 gets the vote. Sky Blue Jeff is the clear danger, but the edge on pace, form, and conditions favours the selection. A genuine betting race — and one where the data has a strong opinion.